Modelling established and emerging crime hotspots in a period of rapid homicide growth using spatio-temporal Hawkes processes

CrimRxiv preprint (2026)

Preprint
Authors

Luis Sotomayor

David Buil-Gil

Olatunji Johnson

Jorge Mateu

Ines Henriques-Cadby

Published

July 21, 2026

Links: DOI

Summary. Applies spatio-temporal Hawkes (self-exciting) point process models to distinguish established from emerging crime hotspots during a period of rapid homicide growth, capturing the near-repeat triggering structure that drives clustering in space and time.